The Javi Decision

Real Salt Lake has made some moves in the recent weeks that will shape this team for the next few years. There is still a gigantic decision looming, however, that will dictate just how successful this team is on the pitch in the coming years. This is ‘The Javi Decision’.We are all very well versed in the history of Javier Morales with Real Salt Lake. He is, to me, probably the single greatest reason for RSL moving from awful, to okay, to great. He was the number 10 you dream about having. He ran the show.

Times have changed, though. Javier suffered that horrific injury to start 2011 and, sadly, has never been the same player he once was. He showed last year that he can still cut it in this league – but he isn’t anywhere near his dominance he once showed. He doesn’t embarrass players every game and he doesn’t have that burst of speed that made his whole game so magical. He isn’t making RSL the envy of the league. Instead, we, like him, have become a good but not great team. We’ve fallen from our high point.

It is because of this that I view the decision to keep or let Javi walk as so gigantic. RSL (read Garth Lagerway, Bill Manning, and Jason Kreis) have worked their tails off to keep him. I understand why. Despite his drop in form, Javi is still a pretty good player. And the RSL system/team could (hypothetically speaking) be great if the right pieces were around him. However, I feel the price that RSL is going to have to pay (between $200K and $300K) just is too much for what Javi has done since his injury.

In sports, it is all about ‘what have you done for me lately’. Well, lately, RSL has really struggled offensively. Javi is our keystone for the offense. It is not a coincidence that RSL has faltered as Javi as faltered.

In my “Armchair GM” posts I said that I’d be all for keeping Javi if we could somehow convince him to stay with a paycheck of roughly $200K. From everything I’ve read and heard, this isn’t the territory that RSL is marketing to Javi. All reports have him possibly signing a 200-300K contract with a heavy bonus possibility should he get a certain number of assists, goals, and minutes. I’m not fully against this, I just view it as the wrong direction for RSL.

With the moves of Johnson, Espindola, and Olave, RSL has started a rebuilding phase. Not a complete destruction of the old team rebuilding phase, like that of when Kreis first go here; but more of a tinkering with some big pieces while keeping other big ones around phase. So the fear, understandably, is that if RSL loses Morales along with these other players, they will falter like so many teams that try the blowup mode. I understand this fear, but feel it to be far too cautious for a team that has the saying “Fortune Favors The Bold” as a motto

What I feel RSL needs to do is let Javi go. Or, more accurately, Javi needs to decide to leave.
This will be best for RSL in the long run.
Here is why:

1. It forces RSL to find a new attacking mid

• An attacking mid of Javi’s quality will be hard to find; there is no doubt in that. In fact, I feel the largest reason for offering Javi such a high contract and giving the bonuses that it would have is that the staff fears they couldn’t find another player like him soon enough, if ever. I view this more as a challenge to this staff to prove that they can once again find that diamond in the rough. If we want to be a team that changes its identity in the big game (read: our offense shows up) then you need to think about changing the driving force of that offense. A new guy would be a challenge for RSL, but it would also be a sign that they are serious when they say they want trophies.

      2.   It makes this team have to get younger

• The midfield for RSL next year, should Javi stay, would be Kyle Beckerman (turns 31 next season) Ned Grabavoy (turns 30 next season), Luis Gil (19), and Javier Morales (turns 33 before season). That’s an average age over 30. We don’t need or want that at RSL. We have to be young and athletic. That is what this system demands. Losing Will Johnson is going to kill this team if they think they can just replace him with the same players and Luis Gil. We have to get younger. Losing Morales would force that hand.

3.  It opens the possibility of a Designated Player

• Without Morales and his salary hit RSL would have quite a bit of wiggle room to bring in a play-maker. RSL has already stated they are going after a higher profile (at least stat wise) striker with the money they opened up. If you open up enough for a designated player, as Javi would essentially do, then there is pretty much no reason to not get a DP. RSL’s diamond system/formation dictates that you must have a special player take responsibility of the top of the diamond. This attacking mid has to have the vision and creativity to make everything go from toothless possession to lethal attack. These kind of players aren’t cheap. They are the players that you pay to see when you go to games. RSL needs a new one.

Summary:

RSL losing Morales, should it happen, should be something celebrated for fans. Yes, I understand that it is going to be rough to lose a guy we’ve all fallen in love with. But this is sports. This isn’t a place where sentiment gets you far, if anywhere. You have to keep moving or you’ll be eaten. RSL, if they are serious about winning trophies, would be wise to let Javi walk. It’s time for RSL to find a new offensive play-maker and, by extension, a new identity.

The Javi decision, to me, will dictate the success of RSL in 2013. With Javi, we’ll be a good team. We’ll qualify for playoffs, possibly go a bit deeper in the USOC, and maybe even make a run in the playoffs (that’s all about getting hot at the right time) but I seriously doubt we’ll win anything more than the RMC. If Javi is gone, it could go one of two ways. I’m very aware of that. RSL could really suck. We could lose our identity and not have a midfield presence. However, it’s just as likely (in my eyes, given who we have scouting) that we could turn into a dominate team once again.

The ‘Javi Decision’ is all about potential. If RSL takes it safe, I’m fine by that. The safe route makes sense and has a small chance of success. However, if we want to make an effort to return to the top of this league, changes are needed. If you change the biggest piece of the puzzle, something different will have to happen.

RSL should welcome the change. RSL should seek the change. Because, if they don’t, I don’t see how this team can win trophies.

Cheers,

15 to 32

Playing GM: The Offense

Well, the moves have begun (at least unofficially). RSL is moving lots of players, big names, and by result lots of money/cap space. It needed to happen. I’m glad it did. Just to finish what I had started, and before I give my impression on the moves RSL has (hypothetically) done, I’ll finish what I would have done as GM.
The offense (both midfield and forwards) for RSL struggled in the big moment this year. I take that back, the offense struggled for RSL ever since I can remember. It is rather ironic that this team struggles as much as it does to put the ball in the net given the head coach is a former striker. You would think we’d be able to get this figured out, but we just can’t. When I think of RSL in a big game, I think of an invisible wall being put in front of whatever goal we’re attacking (or so it seems). We just can’t find the net. Because of this lack of big game – big goal players, this part of the team deserves the most gutting.

AM: Javier Morales

2012 Salary: $477,500 (DP – $350,00 against cap)
2013 Expected Salary: (Out of contract, unknown)
Reasons to Keep:

• A truly special player. When on, he is RSL
• Free kick extraordinaire
• Vision unmatched

Reasons to Cut:

• Since the (horrific) injury, he isn’t the same
• Slow, aging, and more injury prone
• DP cap space

Decision: CUT above $200K
Reasoning:

• If RSL could somehow (don’t hold your breath) convince Javi to stay for under $200K, it would make sense. He still has the vision and set piece abilities. With the right (read faster) pieces around him, he could be lethal. However, he just is too old and likely looking for one last big (ish) paycheck. I don’t blame him for taking it either. For RSL, though, it just doesn’t make sense to keep him at a big price tag.

AM: Luis Gil

2012 Salary: $196,614 (Generation Adidas – No cap hit)
2013 Expected Salary: $200,00 range (a bit unknown)
Reasons to Keep:

• He is a kid (age 18) with tons of talent and room to improve
• The potential payout of selling him to a Euro club (Arsenal want him)
• Shows moments of brilliance where you can see him as the future #10 of RSL and USA

Reasons to Cut:

• Wildly inconsistent in his play
• He won’t be Generation Adidas next year, so that 0 cap hit just jumped to (at least) 200K
• He struggles to find an identity in our system. Is he an outside mid or AM?

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• Assuming we can keep him for under $225,000, he is still a solid player with loads of potential. He got more and more consistent this year even though his time seemed to not be as heavy. He has the talent, we’ve all seen it, it’s just getting it out of him at at least a semi-consistent rate. I wouldn’t sign him to a contract longer than 2 or 3 years, though.

MF: Sebastian Velasquez

2012 Salary: $33,750
2013 Expected Salary: $37,125 (Slightly unknown)
Reasons to Keep:

• Went from an unknown random draft pick to one of the brightest spots for RSL, especially early on
• Really really cheap for his level of talent he has already shown
• Fits this team’s style (both style and attitude) incredibly well

Reasons to Cut:

• Um… you’re stupid?
• His jump in contract is absurd (it isn’t)

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• Vela deserves more time next year. Why he got slid behind Steele (who is now out) is beyond me. I know he doesn’t play defense as well, but in case you didn’t notice – we needed something on the other end. Velasquez is a player that reminds me of Yura. Lots of people just pass him up, he has loads of experience already, and is in need of just the right situation. Hopefully we can do to him (and him to us) what Yura did.

MF: Jonny Steele

2012 Salary: $47,562
2013 Expected Salary: $75,00 range (had a big jump in his contract for this year)Reasons to Keep:

• If he is under about 50 or 60K, he is a pretty decent player
• Has loads of experience and, as Dunseth loves to say, a cultured left foot (a rare thing on RSL)
• Showed early promise as being the guy to step up in the big moment – not so much at the end of the season, though

Reasons to Cut:

• If his salary jump is as big as I’ve heard, he simply isn’t worth it
• As the season wore on, teams figured him out and completely took him out of games
• While he contributed greatly in some games, overall he was a pretty bad player. Even he would admit it

Decision: CUT
Reasoning:

• Over $75K for a player as inconsistent and frustrating as Steele just doesn’t make sense given the cap limitations of this squad. You have to move him out if his contract was going to jump. Good luck in the future, Steele, may your cultured left foot maybe teach your right foot how to do anything but be a kick stand.

MF: David Viana

2012 Salary: $32,000 (league minimum)
2013 Expected Salary: $47,000 (likely league minimum again)
Reasons to Keep:

• After one game, RSL signed him to a contract. This doesn’t happen much anywhere, but especially at RSL
• Has speed, flair, and a nose for goal. 3 things RSL is in desperate need of
• Went from “he’ll probably not see any time to finish the season” to getting minutes in key games at the end of the 2012 regular season. This kid is ahead of the curve

Reasons to Cut:

• His defense leaves a lot to be desired
• Heavily one-footed (so he fits in here very well, I guess)
• Seems to struggle with the “Team is the Star” ideology – at least from what I’ve seen

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• There is far too much potential and skill in this kid. At his young age, with his previous experience (Portugal youth national team), and  his nose for goal, you’d be stupid not to take the risk. This kid could very easily be the next big thing at RSL if he develops how he is projected to. I’m really excited about this guy.

FW: Justin Braun

2012 Salary: $104,500 (Lots of it paid by Montreal, roughly $30K by RSL)
2013 Expected Salary: $110,000
Reasons to Keep:

• He has shown flashes, earlier in his career, of being a great poacher
• His size and speed are a rare combo
• Local kid is a really cool story to have on your team

Reasons to Cut:

• In terms of technical ability, I’m fairly certain I am better than him with my feet
• His play at Chivas was thanks in large part to being incredibly lucky and playing WAY above his talent
• He hasn’t shown anything to say “hey, I can get better” since getting here

Decision: CUT
Reasoning:

• By far, this was the easiest decision for me. Braun just isn’t good enough to play at this level. The kid has plenty of talent, I saw it when he played at SLCC and on the Utah Select Team, but he isn’t an MLS quality striker. Not even off the bench or in the roster. The kid would be best served to either try his luck at a lower league, or just accept that he isn’t going to break into the ranks and find a career.

FW: Emiliano Bonfigli

2012 Salary: $44,000
2013 Expected Salary: $48,400 (assuming no contract jump)
Reasons to Keep:

• Lots and lots of speed
• Ability, hypothetically at least, to open up defenses
• Proven nose for goal

Reasons to Cut

• He didn’t do any of the above with RSL in any but one game
• Supposed to push PJ for that 3rd spot, was lucky if he made the bench by the end of the season
• Incredibly one-dimensional player

Decision: CUT
Reasoning:

• He is really cheap, so I wouldn’t be surprised if RSL kept him, but I’m just not seeing the potential. When I watched him play in RSL reserve matches he showed moments where you could maybe see him being a sub, but never anything overly impressive. He doesn’t utilize, at least not anywhere as much as he should, his one big attribute – speed.

FW: Paulo Junior

2012 Salary: $65,000
2013 Expected Salary: $71,000
Reasons to Keep:

• Has the ability to create and slice open defenses
• A powerful finishing ability when on
• Brazilian flair

Reasons to Cut:

• We haven’t seen the above, in any sort of consistency, since he came here on loan in 2010
• The 2010 PJ looks to have been a flash in the pan, not the guy we wanted/needed
• He never really pushed Espy/Sabo for a starting spot if they were healthy

Decision: CUT
Reasoning:

• I was in love with this guy at the end of 2010. I thought we had found the next big thing in MLS. He was incredible, fast, and had the flair of a true Brazilian striker. But food (go figure, a Brazilian striker who loves food) and injuries plagued him from continuing that dream run. Then, I think reality settled in. He couldn’t burst past players, he didn’t have a move to beat them, he wasn’t a flair player. He isn’t what we need.

FW: Fabian Espindola

2012 Salary: $125,000
2013 Expected Salary: $170,000 (Rough guess, it was supposed to jump quite a bit this year)
Reasons to Keep:

• The guy wears his heart on his sleeve. Both good and bad, but always with passion
• When on, the guy could slice open any defense in the league
• Great partner with Sabo. Runs off his knock downs and causes havoc

Reasons to Cut:

• When the big moment came asking, he shanked his finish (CCL, especially)
• Fiery attitude that lead to absences because “he was too down” or “emotionally beaten”
• So damn left footed

Decision: CUT/Trade
Reasoning:

• This one was really hard for me. I really like Fabi. He is the kind of guy who, in my opinion, gets a much bigger negative rap than he deserves. The reasons I would cut him had nothing to do with his attitude. In fact, his attitude, to me, was a reason to keep him. I say move him because he failed in the big moment not once, not twice, but three plus times. The ball magically seemed to find his feet in the big games, with just the keeper to beat, and he couldn’t do it. Those moments define you as a player. Unfortunately for Espy, they define him in a not so kind light.

FW: Alvaro Saborio

2012 Salary: $405,625 (DP – $350,000 cap hit)
2013 Expected Salary: $415,000 (a guess, but know his cap hit will be $350,000 as a DP)
Reasons to Keep:

• The one guy you can count on to score for RSL
• Over 81 MLS matches, he has 40 goals. In this league, that is an absurd rate. Only Wondo has a better rate than him
• Did I mention he scores goals? HE SCORES GOALS!

Reasons to Cut:

• He is a DP, so automatically he gets put on the list of “what if” when you are looking to clear cap space
• He is aging a bit and is getting banged constantly. How much longer can he hold up?
• When doubled, he can’t create his own goal/space

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• I found the hatred for Sabo this past season (that still continues) to be hilarious. The guy leads the team in goals, does so much dirty work, and is typically really quiet about it. I just don’t get why a blue-collar crowd wouldn’t love this guy. Whatever. He is a keeper. Eat it haters. Sabo is going to be in an RSL kit in 2013, I guarantee it.

Summary:
KEEP:

• Javi (under $200K)
• Gil
• Velasquez
• Viana
• Sabo

CUT/TRADE/WAIVE:

• Javi (over $200K
• Steele
• Braun
• Bonfigli
• Paulo Jr
• Espy

SALARY CAP:
2012: $2,808,750

Expected 2013: $2,949,187

OFFENSIVE RESULTS:
2012 Salary Hit: $1,079,324

2013 Expected Salary Hit: $1,458,525 (Everyone Stays)

2013 Expected Salary Hit: $834,125 (Proposed Players Moved – Javi stays)

2013 Expected Salary Hit: $634,125 (Proposed Players Moved – Javi leaves)

Cap Space Created:

• $245,199 from 2012 numbers (Javi Stays)
  
• $445,199 from 2012 numbers (Javi Leaves)
• $624,400 from 2013 numbers (Javi Stays)
  
• $824,400 from 2013 numbers (Javi Leaves)

Analysis

Any of those numbers are a step in the right direction. It is worth noting that my projected salaries are quite a few stab in the dark type guesses. Based on what I know (limited) about the league and how they increase salaries I made those predictions. As I noted, many players have jumps in their contracts, unknown to pretty much anyone but the league, the player, and the team. This makes it very difficult to do these kind of analyses, but they’re still worth doing. Long story short, RSL has to make heavy cuts in this group – or so I feel. We simply didn’t produce on the offensive end of the field. You don’t reward that play. You punish it. This isn’t one year of failing for many of these guys, either, it’s becoming habit. Change has to happen.

Cheers,

15 to 32

Playing GM: Midfield (Defensive)

(This is part two in a series of posts to come in which I play armchair GM for RSL)

The midfield for Real Salt Lake is what makes the team go. If they are on, we are a nightmare to defend. If they are off, we are like Swiss cheese in defense. The focus for this team is that “everyone defends”; which is, from experience, a very popular saying amongst midfielders. It’s a tactic that Kreis has shown to be very successful over the years, so it is hard to argue against it. The players labeled as midfielders, thus, are under heavy scrutiny. When your system is built around how well (or poorly) your midfield plays, they have to be a vital part of the equation and have to be the very best possible.

As an armchair GM, these are the moves I would make in the midfield (well half of the midfield):

DM: Kyle Beckerman

2012 Salary: $311,250
2013 Expected Salary: $326,812
Reasons to Keep:

• He is the face of this organization, losing him would be a complete shift
• He is #1 or #2 on the “Best DM” in the league lists
• He is in his prime now, with probably a few years left in it
• His USMNT status makes him a great ambassador for RSL

Reasons to Cut:

• His trade value is very very VERY high. You could get a quality player
• His salary is essentially the same as a DP hit
• He has become more reckless the last few years

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• Kyle is just too good to let go. Yeah, he hits the cap quite a bit – but he earns it. Without KB, this team just lacks an identity. This isn’t to say Yordany Alavarez isn’t a quality replacement (I personally think he is just fine) but KB gives this team an edge. He is their leader, to get rid of him would put this team into a really big identification crisis.

DM: Yordany Alvarez

2012 Salary: $44,100
2013 Expected Salary: $48,510
Reasons to Keep:

• Extremely good for that price. Like ridiculously good for that price
• Can slide in for KB very well in a pinch
• If need defensive move in game, he is your answer in the midfield
• Solid player who should see more and more minutes

Reasons to Cut:

• You already have a guy in KB that is good
• A move to a place where he could get more minutes would be good for him. (This is more of a player perspective than RSL)
• You’re crazy

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• This might be the easiest of all the players to decide. Yordany is a really good player just unlucky to have arguably our best player in front of him. If he played any other position, his minutes would be at least double what they are. He is a quality player who is 27 years old (3 years younger than KB) that is being groomed by one of the best DM’s in this leagues history. We got a good thing going here, don’t mess with it.

MF: Enzo Martinez

2012 Salary: $91,000 (Generation Adidas – No Cap Hit)
2013 Expected Salary: $95,550 (Generation Adidas – No Cap Hit)
Reasons To Keep:

• He is generation adidas, meaning his salary amount doesn’t count towards our cap hit at all
• He has a very bright upside and the work ethic you love in a player
• Showed at UNC that he is a winner – will do anything for the crest

Reasons To Cut:

• He is having a hard time adjusting to MLS speed of play
• You don’t like having free players, cap hit wise
• You’re a bad GM

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• This one is up there with the Yordany decision – incredibly easy to make. You have a very talented player with a great attitude and work rate who doesn’t count against your cap at all… why in the hell would you cut him? I could see maybe a trade, but even then you are trading a very valuable piece with that Generation Adidas tag.

MF: Will Johnson

2012 Salary: $243,750
2013 Expected Salary: $255,937
Reasons to Keep:

• If you could build a “Jason Kreis Player” he would look a lot like Will Johnson
• The guy never says die. His energy is something I would hate to have to play against and love to have on our side
• He can play outside back, attacking mid, either side of the diamond, and even forward with relative ease in the transition. An amazing versatility in this day and age of players being built for one single position

Reasons to Cut:

• His salary is bloated. While he is an incredibly gifted player, the simple truth is he isn’t worth over $250K. That is way too much cap space for a guy who is a box to box midfielder
• He struggles mightily in front of goal. He can score spectacular goals, but he can’t seem to find any consistency in front of net
• He has made it no secret that he wants to go back to Europe. Why not get that move started?
• He also has to have some significant trade value – especially with the Canadian clubs. A move there seems a very real possibility

Decision: TRADE/SELL/CUT
Reasoning:

• We need to make cap space in this off season, there are going to be casualties of players we like. Will Johnson is the obvious choice for this. With a quarter of a million being freed by moving him, it only makes sense. I love Johnson, but he doesn’t offer something we can’t find for a lower price.

MF: Ned Grabavoy

2012 Salary: $126,666.67
2013 Expected Salary: $133,000
Reasons to Keep:

• Ned is a player that showed the brilliance of Garth Lagerway. To pick him up off waivers and turn him into a solid mid that is respected around the league is truly amazing
• He is a quite player that does work not everyone appreciates but is very desperately needed
• He is a team favorite, especially with guys like Rimando and Beckerman who are staples of the squad

Reasons to Cut:

• While judging a player on two games is harsh, Ned had the best chances to get us a goal in that playoff series with Seattle. His speed (or lackthereof) kept us from getting a lead in Seattle, at home, and ultimately from advancing
• He seemed to be a lot more injury prone this season. At the age of 29, statistics would suggest this isn’t something that is going to get noticeably better
• He is so bloody slow
• At $133K, you could find a decent young player from South America (with speed) to change the dynamic of the midfield

Decision: TRADE
Reasoning:

• Ned, to me, represents the RSL we want to put in the past. He was a great player who helped lead us to many great and wonderful things. However, he also held us back (especially at the end) from winning the big prizes. I think Ned is a great player who would succeed at another club (especially one struggling to find good solid role player midfielders) but it’s just time to move on at RSL. Thanks for the work and such, but it’s time to say goodbye, Ned.

Summary:
KEEP:

• Beckerman
• Alvarez
• Martinez

MOVE:

• Johnson
• Grabavoy

SALARY CAP:

2012: $2,808,750

Expected 2013: $2,949,187

Midfield Results (this half):

2012 Cap Hit: $725,766.67

2013 Cap Hit: $764,259 (Everyone Stays)

2013 Cap Hit: $375,322 (Suggest Players Moved)

Cap Space Created:

• $350,444.67 (From 2012 Numbers)
• $388,937 (From 2013 Numbers)
  

Analysis:
Moves have to be made in the midfield. There is no question about that. I selected these 5 as I seem them as the more “defensive” of the 10 midfielders. One if not two need to go. The obvious candidates are Johnson and Grabavoy. Johnson could make great trade bait to a Canadian club. Grabs would be a guy many teams would love just for his solid consistent play. I don’t like having to part with these guys, but we need to trim this roster to make the changes for this club (younger, faster, more lethal). These guys are too much of the RSL of old, not the new RSL we want to create and be successful.

Cheers,

15 to 32

Part 3 (second half of midfield) should be completed around December 1st.

Playing GM: The Defense

(This is part one in a series of posts to come in which I play armchair GM for RSL)

The defense for Real Salt Lake has been, in my opinion, the reason for their overall success over the past few years. One of the sayings I use as a coach is “if you don’t get scored on, you can’t lose”. I feel Kreis has the same mentality. In fact, I know he does. If you watched RSL at all over the past few years, you can tell the emphasis is on defending as a unit. It’s the biggest thing that separates RSL and the way they train/play from other MLS teams. Their focus is defense. Thus, figuring out who to keep and who should probably see the door is going to be very difficult. Unless a player is top notch, they simply won’t be able to slide seamlessly into the RSL defense.

Regardless, it is obvious some tweaks need to be made to this team and I don’t think the defense is free of the knife.

GK: Nick Rimando

2012 Salary: $178,250
2013 Expected Salary: $187,162
Reasons to keep:

• He is one of, if not the best goalkeeper in the league
• He rarely has an off night (though when he does it’s a howler)
• His ability with his feet make him an easy and safe outlet
• While older, he isn’t old for a keeper. Still has years left

Reasons to cut:

• His trade value isn’t going to get much higher
• His size will always be a talking point and potentially cause issues
• Nearly 200K for a keeper, with this cap, is asking a lot

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• Rimando is just too damn good to get rid of or trade. Even if a team was willing to give us their top player, I don’t think I would do it. He essentially won the 2009 MLS Cup for us and tried his best to win the 2012 version as well. You can justify that salary with the guys play. If anything, he might actually deserve more.

GK: Kyle Reynish

2012 Salary: $74,304
Expected 2013 Salary: $78,019
Reasons to Keep:

• Familiarity with the team and organization
• Has first team minutes under his belt
• Has the size Rimando lacks greatly

Reasons to Cut:

• $78K for a backup who hardly sees the pitch is steep
• In the chances he has had, he has been anything but consistent
• Despite his size, he doesn’t own his box

Decision: CUT/Trade/Waive
Reasoning:

• He is simply getting paid too much for how he plays and how little he plays.
• The $30K or so that we could get by cutting him and signing a minimum salary backup for Rimando would go a long way in the future. Especially when added to the other minor cuts that are to come
• With first team minutes, I’m pretty sure another team would be willing to have him as their backup. Some teams in this league have aging keepers or keeper issues. Talk to them about what they’d be willing to do. Even if it is simply “you take him, you owe us one later” type thing, I’d be perfectly happy with it

LB/RB: Tony Beltran

2012 Salary: $160,500
2013 Salary: Unknown (new contract next season)
Reasons to Keep:

• He has the potential to be the best defender on this team
• His age and talent means he could be the future of the RSL backline for awhile
• Ability to play both LB and RB
• Probably our best defender overall in terms of defensive abilities.

Reasons to Cut:

• His trade value is high. If you do re-sign him, you could move him right away
• His inability to get into the attack consistently kills our wing play (which is already nonexistent)
• He’ll be asking for a significant increase in pay and we are tight on budget. Not sure you want him for what he’ll have to be paid

Decision: KEEP under $200K/CUT if over $200K
Reasoning:

• He is talented and worth the price up to 200K, but after that he isn’t worth that much of the cap
• In 3 years, if he hasn’t improved offensively, he likely will still have trade value
• I don’t think Mansally, his likely replacement, is MLS starter ready just yet

CB: Nat Borchers

2012 Salary: $211,972
Expected 2013 Salary: $220,570
Reasons to Keep:

• He is the anchor of our back line
• In terms of underrated and under-appreciated  players, he is top of the RSL list
• His style of play won’t deteriorate significantly with age.
• He has the ability to play at least 2 or 3 more years at a top-level without major injury

Reasons to Cut:

• His trade value is only going to decrease after this season
• At $220,570, he is occupying a lot of cap space
• It is possible we have found a much cheaper and younger replacement

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• He is just too damn good and too important to part ways with just yet
• If you put young players around him, he can break them into the system (as seen with Schuler, Mansally, and KWS)
• He is part of “The Spine” of this team that really holds it up

CB: Jamison Olave

2012 Salary: $250,000
2013 Expected Salary: $262,500
Reasons to Keep:

• He is the verb. When on, he is easily the best defender on this team and probably league
• His speed, size, and ability are some of the most difficult to find individually, let alone collectively
• He compliments the anchor style of Borchers incredibly well

Reasons to Cut:

• He isn’t the same player he was in 2010 when he won Defender of the Year
• The skills that distinguish him typically decline rapidly with age
• He has become rather injury prone
• Might have a sliver of trading value left from that 2010/11 performance

Decision: CUT/TRADE
Reasoning:

• Olave simply isn’t getting any younger or less injury prone.
• I think their are teams out there (especially someone like NY) that would kill to have his pedigree in their defense. A trade might do wonders for both teams.
• He will be one of the hardest players to replace. Without him, we lose that beast on defense. That guy that simply intimidates the other player with his physical size.
• Though, when that size is sitting on the bench or in the stands in street clothes, it isn’t quite the same.

DF: Chris Wingert

2012 Salary: $145,000
Expected 2013 Salary: Unknown (New Contract Next Season)
Reasons to Keep:

• Chris was, in my opinion, our defender of the year in 2012. He quitely had a stellar year with consistent minutes and play.
• Like Borchers, his play isn’t based on attributes that deteriorate with age. If anything, his skill set might get better with a few more years.
• His ability to play each of the 4 positions along the back line make him very valuable to this team (and others).
• Along those lines, his ability to play left back and actually use his left foot is something this team has to have

Reasons to Cut:

• He isn’t going to shock you with his incredible wing play. While not fully expected, it is something we lack from our outside backs that is very open for them to exploit should they desire to and have the ability to.
• He is slow, not way slow, but slow enough that it can be a point of weakness other teams look to attack.
• He isn’t cheap, but also not too expensive.

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• So long as his salary remains in a similar ballpark, he is worth the cost.
• The guy is a very consistent outside back and had arguably his best RSL season this year.
• His ability to play CB in a pinch is something that can’t be overvalued.

DF: Chris Schuler

2012 Salary: $44,000
2013 Expected Salary: $46,200 (possibly bigger if signs new deal)
Reasons to Keep:

• Though incredibly unorthodox to watch, this kid can play
• His size and speed (randomly) are something that he utilizes incredibly well
• His ability to slide to outside back in a pinch (reverse of Wingert) is a huge plus on his resume
• Very big upside

Reasons to Cut:

• Injury Prone – a lot
• Injury Prone
• Injury Prone

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• At the price we are paying him, this is a no-brainer. He deserves a lot more, so don’t be surprised if he gets it next season.
• However, with his injury issues, I would be shocked to see a number anywhere over 80K.
• If he has another season filled with injury, though, it might be time to make a move

LB: Kenny Mansally

2012 Salary: $35,750 (Below minimum because he only played half a season)
Expected 2013 Salary: Unknown (Because he came in late, and isn’t near the minimum, it’s hard to determine where he’ll be. If I had to guess, it would be in the $75K range because of the half season amount)
Reasons to Keep:

• He offers something we simply don’t have enough of on this team in general: SPEED
• He is willing to take risks on the offensive side of the ball, something we’ve lacked since Russell’s departure
• Left foot primary and ability to cross a decent ball from time to time

Reasons to Cut:

• Since his first game, he hasn’t shown that desire to sprint down the wing. Thus, eliminating his biggest attribute
• In terms of straight up defense, he isn’t the most solid of outside backs. He dives in and gets burned far too often
• His decision making, in general, seems to suffer under stressful situations

Decision: KEEP
Reasoning:

• So long as he isn’t crazy expensive (which there is zero reason why he should be) he has a lot of potential to challenge Tony/Wingert for a starting spot while also offering Kreis the ability to change tactics with him off the bench.
• Additionally, his age and experience with this league make him quite the steal at the price we look to be getting him at

CB: Kwame Watson Siriboe

2012 Salary: $48,400
2013 Expected Salary: $50,820
Reasons to Keep:

• I had zero hope for this guy after his first game. I thought he would be another MLS reject to use the RSL revolving door in that department. Boy was I wrong
• As a 4th choice CB (well really 3rd as you start 2) he is incredibly talented. In fact, he probably has the talent to be a 3rd (but really 2nd) choice CB on this team.
• He has shown, in a short amount of time, the ability to clean up minor flaws in his game. If he continues that, he could be a starter in 2 seasons.
• Incredible work ethic and drive. Can’t underestimate these variables.

Reasons to Cut:

• It’s not really his fault, but he falls victim to being the last guy on the list of a talented group of CB’s. Carrying 4 potential starters at this position while struggling to find a decent 2nd string AM or FW is something that has to change
• While his play has improved leaps and bounds, there are still glaring areas where he truly struggles. Speed will always be his Achilles heel.
• Like almost all of the RSL defense, he suffers from “turning off” at very poor moments – such as throw ins or dead ball situations for the opposition.

Decision: KEEP (if Olave goes)
Reasoning:

• If we do part ways with one of the other 3 CB’s, KWS should stick around
• His cost and experience don’t align at all and it is something we should abuse instead of letting another team take advantage of
• With that said, he might have trade value above his realistic value, now might be the time to use that

Summary:

KEEP:

• Rimando
• Borchers
• Beltran (below $200K)
• Wingert
• Schuler
• Mansally
• KWS

CUT/TRADE/WAIVE:

• Olave
• Reynish
• Beltran asking over $200K

SALARY CAP:
2012: $2,808,750

Expected 2013: $2,949,187

DEFENSE RESULTS:
2012 Salary Hit: $1,148,176

2013 Expected Salary Hit: $1,295,271 (Everyone Stays)

2013 Expected Salary Hit: $954,752 (Some Players Moved)

Cap Space Created: $193,424 from 2012 numbers, $340,519 from 2013 numbers

Analysis:
Either number (cap space created) is something RSL could really use next season. Even if it was instantly linked back into the defense (which would make sense) you could find a really good player for that cap space that has been opened up. For this to happen, I’d recommend:

• One of Olave or Borchers has to go, likely Olave
• If Beltran can’t be kept under $200K, he should be shown the door
• Trust in the younger guys, while keeping their salaries lower, is key
• Reynish won’t be missed. We are fine finding another backup

Cheers,

15 to 32

Part II will be half of the midfield. Likely focusing on the more defensive oriented players.

The End of an Era… Right?

As the final whistle blew at Rio Tinto Stadium on November 8th, the feeling of disappointment was thick (unless you were one of the few in green). Once again, RSL failed to find the net in a home game where all they needed was just one to extend or win a series/trophy. The list is ever-growing of RSL at the stadium formerly referred to as the Fortress being anything but for the home side. But that is not the biggest reason for the disappointment, at least not for me. The disappointment I felt stemmed from the realization that this was the last game with this group that has earned the nickname of “The Core”. No matter how many changes are made in the coming off-season, one thing is certain: people (likely a plural thing) gotta go.

The biggest question right now on RSL players, staff, fans, and writers is who exactly is going to be on that list of departures? How is this team shaped in the next season? Does Garth Lagerway (and many others) try to still keep as many of this “Core” as possible? Do they decide it’s time to rebuild? What pieces, if any, have that stamp of approval? Does the often used “team blown up” verb-age actually happen? It’s an off-season, in my opinion, that will shape this team’s next 3 to 4 seasons. Being a fan of AC Milan has brought the realization of just how vital it is to part ways with players prior to their giant decline and to not expect too much from unproven players. If you’ve watch Milan this season (and quite a bit of last) you’ll see an aging team that has departed with far too much young talent and  hasn’t had a good eye to scout proper replacements. RSL simply can’t fall victim to that same thing – at least not if Garth Lagerway and Jason Kreis want to keep their jobs in the “really really safe” category.

So over the next few weeks, I’m going to give my opinion on what this team needs to do in order to both stay competitive in the immediate future while also making sure to set themselves up as a good team for time to come. Starting from the defense forward, I’ll look at players in the 3 groups (defense, midfield, forwards/offense) and give my opinion on what should be done with them. What players, I feel, are reliable for the near and distant future; what players are not; and what players are too expensive or worth the cost to keep around. In other words, get ready for 15 to 32 to play armchair GM.

Using the following links to my assistance:
http://www.mlsplayers.org/files/August%201,%202012%20Salary%20Information%20-%20By%20Club.pdf]Player Salaries
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#Salary_cap_in_MLS
http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2012/5/30/3050995/mls-player-salary-analysis-2012
http://www.dynamotheory.com/2012/1/18/2716142/roster-rules-and-salary-cap-101-where-the-dynamo-stand-heading-in-to
http://www.mlssoccer.com/numerology/news/article/2012/06/20/numerology-mls-stats-gurus-take-salary-cap
and a whole host of others.

Get ready to be upset

Cheers,

15 to 32

RSL and The ‘Big Game’

As I sat and watched RSL lose yet another “Big Game” I couldn’t help but think “why does this team perform so poorly in big matches?”  Since Kreis has taken over, RSL hasn’t been known to be a team that performs well on the big stage. (side note: it is an improvement from the previous teams, though, that didn’t perform well on any stage) It seems to be the Achilles heel of this club since we won MLS Cup 2009. We simply don’t perform well if the spotlight is on us.

These were all feelings, though. I wanted some statistical proof of how much we suck – because I’m messed up like that.

So the first thing in need was a definition of what exactly constitutes a “Big Game”.

1. Does it correlate purely to attendance?
   – No. Based on that logic, when we played Montreal earlier this year it would be considered a “Big Game”. This is not to discount, attendance, but to just say that it isn’t what should be used as the criteria purely. If people show up, though, it tends to mean either the match is important or there was some sort of promo or even both.
2. Are there “Big Games” during the regular season?
   – Not Regularly. At most, there are 2 or 3 “Big Games” during the regular season. We might get worked up over a game or two, as fans, but realistically there are only a few moments where the “Big Game” label can be rightly justified. A playoff berth on the line, the Supporters Shield on the line, the RMC deciding game, etc would get that label in my book.
3. Are all playoff and knockout games “Big Games”?
   – Yes… sorta. It’s easy to just go with a broad “yes, they all are” but to say the road game at Columbus for Champions League knockout phases was on the same ground as the Monterrey championship games is a bit misleading. This is a very tricky area, but hopefully I can work it out.
4. Do holidays play into it?
   – Yes, in a way. The 4th and 24th of July game is a “Big Game” regardless of the opponent or the table implications. Because you have people there, lots of people, expecting a good show, the game should get the label. Which leads into my next and final point…
5. Is it expectations?
   – Yes, very much. What is expected of the team, while combining it with the above criteria, really dictates the labeling. It doesn’t always have to be positive expectations, either. If the game is billed as a big one, it typically comes with merit. A 1 vs 2 clash in the middle of the season, for example, could very well be a “Big Game”. As could the 4th of July, a Champions League Group game, or even an RMC match. If the feeling coming into the match is  heightened by some form of expectation, then it likely will get the “Big Game” label.

While not a solid definition, we do get a better understanding of what constitutes a “Big Game” as opposed to just another league match. So, with that, dating back to 2010 (as all my data does) here are the list of “Big Games” RSL has been in.

*I fully expect there to be disagreement on what games I have and have not chosen to include.*

2010:

• 6/9 vs LA Galaxy – MLS Season
• 7/2 vs New England – Holiday
• 7/24 vs Chivas USA – Holiday
• 8/25 @ Cruz Azul – CCL Group
• 9/28 @ TFC – CCL Group
• 10/19 vs Cruz Azul – CCL Group
• 10/23 @ cRapids – RMC Decider
• 10/30 @ FC Dallas – MLS Playoff
• 11/6 vs FC Dallas – MLS Playoff

2010 Record: 3-2-4 (W-L-T)
Home Record: 3-0-2
Road Record: 0-2-2

2011:

• 3/1 vs Columbus – CCL Quarter
• 3/15 vs Saprissa – CCL Semi
• 4/5 @ Saprissa – CCL Semi
• 4/20 @ Monterrey – CCL Final
• 4/27 vs Monterrey – CCL Final
• 7/4 vs New England – Holiday
• 7/23 vs San Jose – Holiday
• 10/1 @ LA Galaxy – MLS Season
• 10/14 @ cRapids – RMC Decider
• 10/29 vs Seattle – MLS Playoff
• 11/2 @ Seattle – MLS Playoff
• 11/6 @ LA Galaxy – MLS Playoff

2011 Record: 4-5-3 (W-L-T)
Home Record: 4-1-1
Road Record: 0-4-2

2012:

• 4/14 @ Sporting KC – MLS Season
• 6/14 @ San Jose – MLS Season
• 7/4 vs Seattle – Holiday
• 7/21 vs cRapids – RMC Decider/Holiday
• 7/31 @ Herediano – CCL Group

2012 Record: 1-3-1 (W-L-T)
Home Record: 1-0-1
Road Record: 0-3-0

Overall:

Overall Record: 8-10-8 (W-L-T)
Home Record: 8-1-4
Road Record: 0-9-4

Analysis:

• We aren’t awful in “Big Games”, but we sure aren’t great or even good by any means, either.
• Unsurprising is our road vs home record in the whole thing. We’ve never won a “big game” on the road in the 3 years of data I collected. Not a single time.
• Conversely, we’ve only lost one “Big Game” at home in the past 3 years. Sadly, it just so happens to be our BIGGEST “Big Game” of them all (go figure).
• While you can’t expect to win them all, a common theme among these is that the higher in importance they become, the worst our results become.
• Interesting note: Our CCL Knockout Record was 2-2-2

Conclusion:

So, there you have it. We have been rather good at home and awful on the road. Nothing too surprising, but it is hard statistical proof.

FORZA RSL!

Cheers,

15 to 32

Unfinished Business

April 27th, 2011.

A day that every RSL fan will remember as such a devastating night after so much promise.

A night that, in hindsight, has defined this team ever since.

A night that saw RSL come inches away from becoming the first MLS team to win CONCACAF Champions League.

A night that RSL looks to now avenge.

As RSL prepares to begin their new Champions League campaign, the unsavory taste left in our collective mouths has risen again. Every time I think of the words “Champions League” all I can think of is that bald bastard Suazo finishing in the north end of the RioT.

It’s painful, but it’s useful.

This tournament could be what RSL has needed this season. We’ve seen the guys play well, but we’ve never really seen that bite or emotion from the whole squad. This tournament, though, will bring that out of you. Whether you like it or not.

Remember this?

These games get you pumped. These games get your blood flowing. These games are a playoff match each and every night.

Tonight’s match is a beginning of what could very easily be RSL’s “turn around” this season. These guys can finally get that horrendous night out of their minds from over a year ago. They can finally prove that what they did was not a fluke, but is a tradition this team will embark on each and every year.

Starting tonight, we begin that unfinished business

FORZA RSL!
Cheers,

15 to 32

The RSL Stat Book – Update

Here is what the RSL stat book, a thing I created in the previous posts, looks like as of July 23rd.

RSL Stat Book

 

FORZA RSL!

 

Cheers,

15 to 32

The State of the RSL Offense – Promise and Disappointment

You know, it’s only fitting that I write a piece about the RSL defense last week. RSL played, in my opinion, the worst defense of the last 3 or 4 years in the last 180 minutes of soccer at the RioT. Such is life…

To balance things out (and to jinx the offense as the go to Columbus) I’ve decided to take the same statistical approach of the offensive end of Real Salt Lake. Much like the defensive data, this has  proven to be rather interesting, and, at the same time, lacking all the data I was really hoping for.

On the plus side, I’m using the three exact same categories for the RSL offense as I did the RSL defense. This will make comparing not apple’s and oranges, but truly apple’s and apple’s.

The three area’s I took into account were:

1. Goals For Real Salt Lake

• The one that really matters at the end of the day, how many times did RSL put the ball in the back of the net. Simple Enough.

2. Total Shots for Real Salt Lake

• This gives an idea of how many chances RSL is creating in the middle and final third. It makes the other 2 sets of data have meaning, as we will see.

3. Shots on Goal for Real Salt Lake

• This looks at how many time RSL took those said opportunities in the total shots department and made use of them by actually challenging the keeper or, more hopefully, bagging a goal.

So, without further adieu, here is the data:

RSL Stat Book

• You will notice that I’ve simply just made a second worksheet inside the same book. I figure this will be easier for me to keep track of and to make adjustments to as the year goes on.
• You’ll also notice that I updated the defense book to include the previous result. The same trend of giving up more than normal chances continued. Go figure RSL lost…
• Lets examine the data:

Data 1: Goals For Real Salt Lake

• This is the best part of the data in regards to 2012. As of this point in the season, we’ve put the ball in the net, on average, 1.65 times a game. The median, which really is a better gauge of things, actually pushes that up to a solid 2 goals a game.
• Even more promising is that our standard deviation is the lowest it’s been, at this point in the season, compared to any of the others. This means, as the median already suggested, we’re putting the ball in the net multiple times consistently.
• If we just stopped here, which I’m sure many would do, then we’d have to say the RSL offense is doing its job this year. It’s the defense’s fault that RSL isn’t on top of the table currently. Further examination of data, however, would challenge that the blame lies purely on the d (though some definitely does).

Data 2: Total Shots for Real Salt Lake

• This is an area that RSL is killing it in this year. So far in 2012, RSL averages 12.88 shots per game. The median is 13. The standard deviation is just under 3. That’s astounding when compared to other years, both overall and at this point in the season.
• In 2011, the next best year in this category, RSL averaged 11.59 at this point in the season and 11.18 by season’s end. The median, in both cases, was 11. The standard deviation was above 5 and closer to 6, in both instances, as well.
• Thus we see that RSL is creating more and more chances, consistently, this season than in any other.
• This also proves that the reason RSL didn’t win the Supporters Shield in 2010 is that they simply didn’t create enough chances.
• The biggest thing to take away from this is that 2012 RSL is the best of the 3 years of data in terms of being able to take shots and creating them. So what is so wrong with this data, you ask? well…

Data 3: Shots on Goal

• Herein lies the issue of the 2012 RSL offense. To put it simply, we don’t put the ball on the frame anywhere near as much as we should.
• The mean of 2012 is 4.65 shots on goal, this is simply unacceptable. Compared to 2010 (4.67 overall, 5.35 at this point in the season) and 2011 (6.62 overall and 7 at this point in the season) we are lacking composure with our chances.
• The median of 2012 is slightly better at 5. Thus we see that RSL has had a few games this year (@ Sporting KC, for example) in which the mean is being affected negatively. Regardless, the median still isn’t that promising when compared to 2010 (4 overall and at this point in the season) and 2011 (5.5 overall and 6 at this point in the season).
• The standard deviation perpetuates this worry as it is the lowest, by quite a bit, of the 3 seasons collected. With the standard deviation at 1.97, we see that we consistently aren’t putting chances on frame. It isn’t one or two games of the offense losing their shooting boots, they simply don’t have them this year.
• When simply comparing the SOG data to the other seasons, there isn’t a gigantic disparity, though. We are just slightly worse than 2011 and slightly better than 2010, so why the worry? It lies in the combination of all this data.

Analytical Conclusion:

• The biggest concern is that RSL is creating more chances than they ever had before (total shots) but not putting nearly as many on frame as they should (SOG).
• Yeah, goals are at a record high for RSL, but with how many more chances we are consistently creating, it should even be higher.
• When you couple this with a somewhat porous defense, you see why RSL has struggled in games this year. Our focus has shifted, whether Kreis will admit it or not, from defense to offense. This manifests itself in the amount of chances we’re creating and the amount of goals we are bagging.
• The issue, though, is that we aren’t putting enough of those chances away, or even making the opposing keeper make a save.

Possible Solutions to Change the Issue:

• Combining this with the post I did on the RSL defense, we see that there seems to be a larger focus for RSL on the offensive side rather than the defensive. The take-away from that previous post was that our midfield or, more accurately, the team as a unit wasn’t focusing on the defensive side of things enough. We see this proven in the increased offense numbers.
• The way RSL could truly fix this is to go to the old saying “defense wins championships”. I’d be perfectly fine with RSL putting fewer balls in the net if it meant we were also going to cut down on the ones going into our own – and of course we won.
• RSL also, just based on this data, needs to be better in front of goal. To only have a median of 5 shots on goal when the median total shots is 13 is simply unacceptable at this level. For every 3 shots that RSL is taking, just over one (on average) is actually going on frame. At this level, you have to be better in front of goal to win silverware.
• Ultimately, the mentality of this team needs to have an adjustment. We’ve been in shootouts far too many times this year, getting lucky on multiple occasions. This luck will (and possibly already has) run out. You can’t approach the game with the mindset of “we’ll just score more than them, our offense can get things done”. I’ve never heard of a team that does that, in soccer, and has a good track record.
• To win, you have to play defense as a unit and not give opportunities to the other team. You also have to take your chances well when they come as they are typically few and far between.

FORZA RSL!

cheers,

15 to 32

The State of the RSL Defense – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

After conceding three goals in a really unspectacular fashion, I’ve come to think about the status of the real salt lake defense this season. In years past, the RSL D has been the rock of the RSL system. As Jason Kreis says, the team defends as a unit and it is one of the first things they always work on with new players. What is scary about this season, though, is the amount of games that  RSL has conceded, in my opinion, rather weak goals. The standard is set high, I’ll admit, but I expect our defense to not be making blunders and to be composed in front of our own goal. This means that if the opponent is going to score, they are going to have to earn it. It won’t be because of mental lapses or poor positioning, but because the other team executed their play well.

I’ve noticed this season a bad trend of our defense getting caught out of position and losing shape. This means that the center backs, most often, are not giving the outside backs the depth and support they need thus making our back-line “flat”, as it is commonly called, and susceptible to an easy through ball or over the top ball. Thinking back on the goals we’ve conceded this season, you will notice how many feature RSL losing on a foot race or getting slotted with a diagonal ball in behind the outside back and in the hole vacated by the center back.

Are things really that bad, though? I’ve taken the time to gather some statistics of the past 2 seasons (2010 and 2011) and compared them to the current season. Sadly, mlssocer.com and soccernet don’t offer all the statistical data I was originally hoping for. For example, I was hoping to compared final third touches for the opposition in this season to season’s past, but that was no where to be found. Another example: I wanted to compare possession for our opponent (out of 100) over the past few seasons, but all I could find was possession for this current season. That really doesn’t do me well if I’m going to be using the data as a comparison. What I eventually settled on were 3 areas of data that I think can paint a relatively good picture of how our defense is stacking up.

1. Shots on goal by the opponent:

– This is rather straight forward. It was easy to collect and gives an idea as to how many quality chances (assuming the opponent takes a quality chance and puts it on frame) we are giving up in each match and through the season.

2. Goals Against (or goals for the opponent)

– No matter how I spin this post, this is the data that really matters. You could give up 50 chances to the opponent, but if you keep a clean sheet, it’s hard to argue you did much wrong.

3. Total Shots for opponent

– This gives an idea of how much we are allowing the other team to have open space in the area about 35 yards from goal and closer. I know it is impossible to use this as a great stat, what is to stop a team from cracking a shot from midfield for example, but it is what I have available. I also don’t recall too many teams just smashing balls towards our goal in desperation. Typically, if a team is taking a shot, it’s because they believe they have a chance to make something happen.

I’m hopeful the spreadsheet I’ve made will actually be able to paste on here…

RSL D (click to download and view)

If you open that spread sheet, you will see I’ve taken the 3 data points and used a total for the season, a mean, a median, a standard deviation, and a mean for where we are in the current season game # wise (this will allow us to compare trends).

2010 was, by all standards, a historical year not only for RSL’s defense, but for any defense ever in Major League Soccer. RSL conceded 20 goals over the entire season. That’s simply remarkable. Look at how many goals we’ve conceded this season after just 16 games: 17 goals. That’s 3 shy of where we finished in 2010, and we still have 14 more games before we reach the same amount of games played. So, it’s hard to say we’ll match 2010 stats in anything. But that’s not the point. The point here is that we’re trending in a bad direction.

For each of the 3 data points, here are some notable points and what I think is important to take away:

Data 1: Shots on Goal for Opponent:

• We are actually at our best, statistically speaking, point in the data in the current season. We simply aren’t giving as many chances on goal as we have in the past.
• In all the data I’ve taken, we’ve only ever held the opponent to zero shots on goal twice. Once was back in 2010 against Chicago in the blistering heat, the other was this season @ Seattle. That game was, in hindsight, possibly the best defensive game we’ve played in a long long time.
• We have a relatively high standard deviation in this category for 2012. This means we’ve given up lots of shots on goal in some games, while giving up hardly any in others. We’ve been a bit helter skelter, if you will, in this department (and overall, once you look at all the data)
• Both the mean and the median are the lowest they’ve ever been – even when comparing against the full seasons of 2010 and 2011 or against those seasons after 16 games played. Remarkable stuff.
• So, with all that, we should be pretty excited, right? well…

Data 2: Goals Against (or Goals for Opponent)

• This is where the data starts to get disheartening. We’ve given up more goals so far this season than we have, at this point, in either of the other seasons.
• Our mean, median, and standard deviation are the highest of any point when comparing to the current game #.
• What I think is really important to note here is that we see a trend in the latter half of 2011 spill into 2012. Half way through 2011, we weren’t giving up too many goals (12, the lowest in any of the 3 seasons) but in the second part of the season we started to leak goals. We were more prone to multiple goals against games. In fact, we went on a four game stretch where we gave up 2 or more goals to our opponent at the very end of 2011.
• In 2012 we seem to do one of two things: keep a clean sheet or give up multiple goals. It’s as though we lose focus for really long stretches or keep it (defensively speaking, at least) for the whole match.
• This stat is, as I said before, the one that really counts. It doesn’t matter if you give up only 3 shots on goal in a whole game, if each of them finds the back of the net, you’re having a bad night.
• So the question then is, what exactly is different this season that we are giving up so many goals? well…

Data 3: Total Shots for Opponent

• This, I think, is where the ultimate problem lies. We are simply giving too many chances inside our own defensive third to the other team. This isn’t just a defensive problem, then, it’s a group defending problem that extends into the midfield and even to the forwards.
• As of this point in the season, we have given up 186 shots. That is horrific. The next closest point is in 2011 when we gave up 145 – a whole 41 less chances. Dividing that among the 16 games, we are averaging  2.5 more shots against this season than we did in 2011 at this point (also proven in the mean and median).
• Of even more concern is that our standard deviation is the lowest, at this point in the season, than of the other 2 seasons. This means that the data isn’t being skewed by one or two really bad games. We are in fact actually consistently giving up multiple more chances in each game than we have in the last 2 seasons.
• A point that further drives this home is that we’ve only had 4 games this season where we gave up less than 10 shots. In 2011, we had only 4 games in which we gave up 10 OR MORE shots.
• Giving up, on average, 2 more chances per game is simply unacceptable at this level.

Analytical Conclusion

• The problem of the RSL defense is not just the back four (or five, if you include the GK), which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
• The issue lies in the lack of pressure RSL seems to be putting on the opponent in the midfield and in their own half.
• Thinking of games this season, this seems to actually be very true. We seem content with allowing the opponent not to only come out of their half without much, if any, pressure. But we also seem content with giving them the middle third of the pitch and the space on our own defensive third without really forcing them to make a decision.
• This is asking for problems – problems which have lead to a record number of goals against.

Possible Solutions to Change the Issue

• The obvious thing that needs to be changed if RSL wants to stop leaking goals is a higher line of pressure in the middle and up top. This, I believe, will not only fix the problem of conceding goals, but might also assist in quicker and easier goals for RSL. An example of great high pressure would be Sporting KC. While I don’t expect, or even want, RSL to implement a system change that makes us play like chickens with our heads cut off, I do want to see a more energetic defense.
• This leads me to my next point, a higher work rate is simply a must. This may seem a bit harsh, but I feel our midfield and forwards are putting out the least amount of effort they have of the past 3 years this season. It seems they are worried more about preservation, given the long and congested schedule, than forcing the other team into mistakes. From experience, if you give more early on in a game, you actually can reap more reward quicker and likely put yourself in a good position in the end (read up by multiple goals) rather than preserving and having to battle a full 90 with anywhere from a one goal lead, to a tie, or even being down.
• Ultimately, RSL simply has to stop giving the opponent as many chances as we have this season. The more times you let the opponent shoot, logically speaking, the more likely they are to find the back of the net. The stats back me on this, too.

FORZA RSL!

Cheers,

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