After conceding three goals in a really unspectacular fashion, I’ve come to think about the status of the real salt lake defense this season. In years past, the RSL D has been the rock of the RSL system. As Jason Kreis says, the team defends as a unit and it is one of the first things they always work on with new players. What is scary about this season, though, is the amount of games that RSL has conceded, in my opinion, rather weak goals. The standard is set high, I’ll admit, but I expect our defense to not be making blunders and to be composed in front of our own goal. This means that if the opponent is going to score, they are going to have to earn it. It won’t be because of mental lapses or poor positioning, but because the other team executed their play well.
I’ve noticed this season a bad trend of our defense getting caught out of position and losing shape. This means that the center backs, most often, are not giving the outside backs the depth and support they need thus making our back-line “flat”, as it is commonly called, and susceptible to an easy through ball or over the top ball. Thinking back on the goals we’ve conceded this season, you will notice how many feature RSL losing on a foot race or getting slotted with a diagonal ball in behind the outside back and in the hole vacated by the center back.
Are things really that bad, though? I’ve taken the time to gather some statistics of the past 2 seasons (2010 and 2011) and compared them to the current season. Sadly, mlssocer.com and soccernet don’t offer all the statistical data I was originally hoping for. For example, I was hoping to compared final third touches for the opposition in this season to season’s past, but that was no where to be found. Another example: I wanted to compare possession for our opponent (out of 100) over the past few seasons, but all I could find was possession for this current season. That really doesn’t do me well if I’m going to be using the data as a comparison. What I eventually settled on were 3 areas of data that I think can paint a relatively good picture of how our defense is stacking up.
1. Shots on goal by the opponent:
– This is rather straight forward. It was easy to collect and gives an idea as to how many quality chances (assuming the opponent takes a quality chance and puts it on frame) we are giving up in each match and through the season.
2. Goals Against (or goals for the opponent)
– No matter how I spin this post, this is the data that really matters. You could give up 50 chances to the opponent, but if you keep a clean sheet, it’s hard to argue you did much wrong.
3. Total Shots for opponent
– This gives an idea of how much we are allowing the other team to have open space in the area about 35 yards from goal and closer. I know it is impossible to use this as a great stat, what is to stop a team from cracking a shot from midfield for example, but it is what I have available. I also don’t recall too many teams just smashing balls towards our goal in desperation. Typically, if a team is taking a shot, it’s because they believe they have a chance to make something happen.
I’m hopeful the spreadsheet I’ve made will actually be able to paste on here…
RSL D (click to download and view)
If you open that spread sheet, you will see I’ve taken the 3 data points and used a total for the season, a mean, a median, a standard deviation, and a mean for where we are in the current season game # wise (this will allow us to compare trends).
2010 was, by all standards, a historical year not only for RSL’s defense, but for any defense ever in Major League Soccer. RSL conceded 20 goals over the entire season. That’s simply remarkable. Look at how many goals we’ve conceded this season after just 16 games: 17 goals. That’s 3 shy of where we finished in 2010, and we still have 14 more games before we reach the same amount of games played. So, it’s hard to say we’ll match 2010 stats in anything. But that’s not the point. The point here is that we’re trending in a bad direction.
For each of the 3 data points, here are some notable points and what I think is important to take away:
Data 1: Shots on Goal for Opponent:
- We are actually at our best, statistically speaking, point in the data in the current season. We simply aren’t giving as many chances on goal as we have in the past.
- In all the data I’ve taken, we’ve only ever held the opponent to zero shots on goal twice. Once was back in 2010 against Chicago in the blistering heat, the other was this season @ Seattle. That game was, in hindsight, possibly the best defensive game we’ve played in a long long time.
- We have a relatively high standard deviation in this category for 2012. This means we’ve given up lots of shots on goal in some games, while giving up hardly any in others. We’ve been a bit helter skelter, if you will, in this department (and overall, once you look at all the data)
- Both the mean and the median are the lowest they’ve ever been – even when comparing against the full seasons of 2010 and 2011 or against those seasons after 16 games played. Remarkable stuff.
- So, with all that, we should be pretty excited, right? well…
Data 2: Goals Against (or Goals for Opponent)
- This is where the data starts to get disheartening. We’ve given up more goals so far this season than we have, at this point, in either of the other seasons.
- Our mean, median, and standard deviation are the highest of any point when comparing to the current game #.
- What I think is really important to note here is that we see a trend in the latter half of 2011 spill into 2012. Half way through 2011, we weren’t giving up too many goals (12, the lowest in any of the 3 seasons) but in the second part of the season we started to leak goals. We were more prone to multiple goals against games. In fact, we went on a four game stretch where we gave up 2 or more goals to our opponent at the very end of 2011.
- In 2012 we seem to do one of two things: keep a clean sheet or give up multiple goals. It’s as though we lose focus for really long stretches or keep it (defensively speaking, at least) for the whole match.
- This stat is, as I said before, the one that really counts. It doesn’t matter if you give up only 3 shots on goal in a whole game, if each of them finds the back of the net, you’re having a bad night.
- So the question then is, what exactly is different this season that we are giving up so many goals? well…
Data 3: Total Shots for Opponent
- This, I think, is where the ultimate problem lies. We are simply giving too many chances inside our own defensive third to the other team. This isn’t just a defensive problem, then, it’s a group defending problem that extends into the midfield and even to the forwards.
- As of this point in the season, we have given up 186 shots. That is horrific. The next closest point is in 2011 when we gave up 145 – a whole 41 less chances. Dividing that among the 16 games, we are averaging 2.5 more shots against this season than we did in 2011 at this point (also proven in the mean and median).
- Of even more concern is that our standard deviation is the lowest, at this point in the season, than of the other 2 seasons. This means that the data isn’t being skewed by one or two really bad games. We are in fact actually consistently giving up multiple more chances in each game than we have in the last 2 seasons.
- A point that further drives this home is that we’ve only had 4 games this season where we gave up less than 10 shots. In 2011, we had only 4 games in which we gave up 10 OR MORE shots.
- Giving up, on average, 2 more chances per game is simply unacceptable at this level.
Analytical Conclusion
- The problem of the RSL defense is not just the back four (or five, if you include the GK), which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
- The issue lies in the lack of pressure RSL seems to be putting on the opponent in the midfield and in their own half.
- Thinking of games this season, this seems to actually be very true. We seem content with allowing the opponent not to only come out of their half without much, if any, pressure. But we also seem content with giving them the middle third of the pitch and the space on our own defensive third without really forcing them to make a decision.
- This is asking for problems – problems which have lead to a record number of goals against.
Possible Solutions to Change the Issue
- The obvious thing that needs to be changed if RSL wants to stop leaking goals is a higher line of pressure in the middle and up top. This, I believe, will not only fix the problem of conceding goals, but might also assist in quicker and easier goals for RSL. An example of great high pressure would be Sporting KC. While I don’t expect, or even want, RSL to implement a system change that makes us play like chickens with our heads cut off, I do want to see a more energetic defense.
- This leads me to my next point, a higher work rate is simply a must. This may seem a bit harsh, but I feel our midfield and forwards are putting out the least amount of effort they have of the past 3 years this season. It seems they are worried more about preservation, given the long and congested schedule, than forcing the other team into mistakes. From experience, if you give more early on in a game, you actually can reap more reward quicker and likely put yourself in a good position in the end (read up by multiple goals) rather than preserving and having to battle a full 90 with anywhere from a one goal lead, to a tie, or even being down.
- Ultimately, RSL simply has to stop giving the opponent as many chances as we have this season. The more times you let the opponent shoot, logically speaking, the more likely they are to find the back of the net. The stats back me on this, too.
FORZA RSL!
Cheers,
15 to 32
One Touch Soccer 