The State of the RSL Offense – Promise and Disappointment

You know, it’s only fitting that I write a piece about the RSL defense last week. RSL played, in my opinion, the worst defense of the last 3 or 4 years in the last 180 minutes of soccer at the RioT. Such is life…

To balance things out (and to jinx the offense as the go to Columbus) I’ve decided to take the same statistical approach of the offensive end of Real Salt Lake. Much like the defensive data, this has  proven to be rather interesting, and, at the same time, lacking all the data I was really hoping for.

On the plus side, I’m using the three exact same categories for the RSL offense as I did the RSL defense. This will make comparing not apple’s and oranges, but truly apple’s and apple’s.

The three area’s I took into account were:

1. Goals For Real Salt Lake

• The one that really matters at the end of the day, how many times did RSL put the ball in the back of the net. Simple Enough.

2. Total Shots for Real Salt Lake

• This gives an idea of how many chances RSL is creating in the middle and final third. It makes the other 2 sets of data have meaning, as we will see.

3. Shots on Goal for Real Salt Lake

• This looks at how many time RSL took those said opportunities in the total shots department and made use of them by actually challenging the keeper or, more hopefully, bagging a goal.

So, without further adieu, here is the data:

RSL Stat Book

• You will notice that I’ve simply just made a second worksheet inside the same book. I figure this will be easier for me to keep track of and to make adjustments to as the year goes on.
• You’ll also notice that I updated the defense book to include the previous result. The same trend of giving up more than normal chances continued. Go figure RSL lost…
• Lets examine the data:

Data 1: Goals For Real Salt Lake

• This is the best part of the data in regards to 2012. As of this point in the season, we’ve put the ball in the net, on average, 1.65 times a game. The median, which really is a better gauge of things, actually pushes that up to a solid 2 goals a game.
• Even more promising is that our standard deviation is the lowest it’s been, at this point in the season, compared to any of the others. This means, as the median already suggested, we’re putting the ball in the net multiple times consistently.
• If we just stopped here, which I’m sure many would do, then we’d have to say the RSL offense is doing its job this year. It’s the defense’s fault that RSL isn’t on top of the table currently. Further examination of data, however, would challenge that the blame lies purely on the d (though some definitely does).

Data 2: Total Shots for Real Salt Lake

• This is an area that RSL is killing it in this year. So far in 2012, RSL averages 12.88 shots per game. The median is 13. The standard deviation is just under 3. That’s astounding when compared to other years, both overall and at this point in the season.
• In 2011, the next best year in this category, RSL averaged 11.59 at this point in the season and 11.18 by season’s end. The median, in both cases, was 11. The standard deviation was above 5 and closer to 6, in both instances, as well.
• Thus we see that RSL is creating more and more chances, consistently, this season than in any other.
• This also proves that the reason RSL didn’t win the Supporters Shield in 2010 is that they simply didn’t create enough chances.
• The biggest thing to take away from this is that 2012 RSL is the best of the 3 years of data in terms of being able to take shots and creating them. So what is so wrong with this data, you ask? well…

Data 3: Shots on Goal

• Herein lies the issue of the 2012 RSL offense. To put it simply, we don’t put the ball on the frame anywhere near as much as we should.
• The mean of 2012 is 4.65 shots on goal, this is simply unacceptable. Compared to 2010 (4.67 overall, 5.35 at this point in the season) and 2011 (6.62 overall and 7 at this point in the season) we are lacking composure with our chances.
• The median of 2012 is slightly better at 5. Thus we see that RSL has had a few games this year (@ Sporting KC, for example) in which the mean is being affected negatively. Regardless, the median still isn’t that promising when compared to 2010 (4 overall and at this point in the season) and 2011 (5.5 overall and 6 at this point in the season).
• The standard deviation perpetuates this worry as it is the lowest, by quite a bit, of the 3 seasons collected. With the standard deviation at 1.97, we see that we consistently aren’t putting chances on frame. It isn’t one or two games of the offense losing their shooting boots, they simply don’t have them this year.
• When simply comparing the SOG data to the other seasons, there isn’t a gigantic disparity, though. We are just slightly worse than 2011 and slightly better than 2010, so why the worry? It lies in the combination of all this data.

Analytical Conclusion:

• The biggest concern is that RSL is creating more chances than they ever had before (total shots) but not putting nearly as many on frame as they should (SOG).
• Yeah, goals are at a record high for RSL, but with how many more chances we are consistently creating, it should even be higher.
• When you couple this with a somewhat porous defense, you see why RSL has struggled in games this year. Our focus has shifted, whether Kreis will admit it or not, from defense to offense. This manifests itself in the amount of chances we’re creating and the amount of goals we are bagging.
• The issue, though, is that we aren’t putting enough of those chances away, or even making the opposing keeper make a save.

Possible Solutions to Change the Issue:

• Combining this with the post I did on the RSL defense, we see that there seems to be a larger focus for RSL on the offensive side rather than the defensive. The take-away from that previous post was that our midfield or, more accurately, the team as a unit wasn’t focusing on the defensive side of things enough. We see this proven in the increased offense numbers.
• The way RSL could truly fix this is to go to the old saying “defense wins championships”. I’d be perfectly fine with RSL putting fewer balls in the net if it meant we were also going to cut down on the ones going into our own – and of course we won.
• RSL also, just based on this data, needs to be better in front of goal. To only have a median of 5 shots on goal when the median total shots is 13 is simply unacceptable at this level. For every 3 shots that RSL is taking, just over one (on average) is actually going on frame. At this level, you have to be better in front of goal to win silverware.
• Ultimately, the mentality of this team needs to have an adjustment. We’ve been in shootouts far too many times this year, getting lucky on multiple occasions. This luck will (and possibly already has) run out. You can’t approach the game with the mindset of “we’ll just score more than them, our offense can get things done”. I’ve never heard of a team that does that, in soccer, and has a good track record.
• To win, you have to play defense as a unit and not give opportunities to the other team. You also have to take your chances well when they come as they are typically few and far between.

FORZA RSL!

cheers,

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